Who are the winners and losers from Syria’s crisis?
TOPSHOT – This aerial picture shows a bullet-riddled portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad adorning Hama’s municipality building after it was defaced following the capture of the city by anti government fighters, on December 6, 2024.
Omar Haj Kadour | Afp | Getty Images
The dramatic toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime at the hands of rebel forces this weekend could have far-reaching consequences for the Middle Eastern country, global alliances and markets, according to analysts.
Over the past fortnight, rebel forces led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham carried out a lightning-fast offensive across the country, seizing key cities along the way. The faction finally claimed the capital Damascus at the weekend, prompting President Bashar al-Assad to flee the country and seek refuge in Russia, according to Russian state media reports.
The overthrow of Assad was greeted cautiously by Western nations who are wary of the potential for further bloodshed and of a power vacuum in Syria, if a chaotic and contested transition of leadership takes place.
A country riven with 13 years of brutal civil war Syria has seen competing factions — including the terrorist group that styles itself the Islamic State — fight each other as well as Assad’s force in recent years, raising the potential for rival power grabs.
For now, however, the fall of the Assad dynasty after over 50 years in power has more immediate global ramifications, with Russia and Iran seen as “losers” from the ousting of the Syrian dictator, while the U.S., Turkey and Israel are viewed among the main beneficiaries from regime change.
An anti-government fighter holds a weapon as he keeps position near a defaced portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, in the city of Hama after forces captured the central Syrian city, on December 6, 2024.
Omar Haj Kadour | Afp | Getty Images
“The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Damascus will have repercussions well beyond Syria. The great losers are Iran and Russia, without whose support Assad would have lost the almost 14-year civil war long ago,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, said in analysis Monday.
“Iran has likely lost its major route to send weapons to the Hezbollah terror militia in Lebanon. Despite a potential power vacuum in parts of Syria for a while, the Middle East could eventually be a little less unstable as a result,” Schmieding said in emailed comments.
U.S., Europe emboldened
Starting with the U.S., economists point out that the fall of Assad, and the accompanying weakening of Russia and Iran after the loss of a key ally in the region, will give U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Western powers a welcome boost.
“The new reality is when Donald Trump assumes office on January 20th 2025 he will be facing a threat board where the opposition looks massively weakened, and how the U.S. holds many of the cards,” market strategist Bill Blain said in emailed comments Monday.
“That doesn’t mean the world is much less dangerous – it’s entirely unclear what kind of new Syria might emerge from Assad’s overthrow – but it feels like power and the global initiative could be shifting back to the West,” he added.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron (C) walks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump (R) and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (L) after a meeting at the Elysee Presidential Palace in Paris on Dec. 7, 2024.
Julien De Rosa | Afp | Getty Images
Assad’s downfall and the “de facto defeat” of Russia and Iran in the process, Blain said, has “massive implications for markets in terms of unwinding fears around the dollar’s pre-eminence, while increasing the momentum that could develop behind Trump’s global trade vision” — both in terms of putting the U.S. and the U.S. dollar front and center, he noted.
“The effect on sentiment could be immense in terms of global confidence and redirected flows into U.S. assets and commodities on rising growth expectations,” Blain said.
Europe could also be a beneficiary of the regime change in Syria, if it means fewer displaced refugees entering the region — a development that has fueled anti-immigrant sentiment and the rise of populist parties in recent years.
Israel and Turkey boosted
The major immediate geopolitical “winners” are Israel and Turkey, analysts also noted, with the former seeing its regional nemesis Iran weakened further, thanks to Assad’s downfall — while Ankara emerges as “the most influential foreign actor in the country,” Wolfango Piccoli, co-president at risk consultancy Teneo, noted on Sunday.
“Turkey, which shares a 560 miles long frontier with Syria, has been a main backer of opposition groups aiming to topple Assad since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011,” he said in emailed comments.
“Turkey is (for now) set to be the biggest external beneficiary of Assad’s fall,” Piccoli said, although he cautioned that Ankara will only feel the benefits of the regime change in Damascus “if no dangerous vacuum of power emerges and the power is transferred relatively peacefully from now on.”
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan delivers a national statement at the World Climate Action Summit during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, December 1, 2023.
Thaier Al-sudani | Reuters
“In other words, Turkey stands to benefit only if the Assad regime is replaced by a functioning government able to face the daunting task of delivering stability to a diverse country with competing factions that will need billions of dollars in aid and investments to rebuild,” Piccoli said.
“Unsurprisingly, Turkish authorities have urged Syrian opposition groups to unite following the fall of the regime in Damascus while avoiding any triumphalist claim,” he noted.
Israel is seen as a beneficiary of Assad’s fall because of its impact on Iran, which has used Syria as a supply route to its proxy in Lebanon, the militant group Hezbollah. Israel has looked to severely weaken this supply chain as part of its military campaign against Iranian proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
In a Monday note, David Roche at Quantum Strategy described Assad’s fall as the first major geopolitical plate shift that weakens “the Axis of Autocracies” including Iran and Russia in a long time.
“It does not do away with the Israel – Iran conflict. But it strengthens the hand of the Israel and U.S. to continue zapping Iran’s economic strength (which Trump will do with hard sanctions to begin with). Ultimately Iran’s nuclear ambitions will still have to be dealt with militarily. But that comes later (end 2025 2026?),” Roche said.
Russia weakened
The other most notable “loser” from Assad’s overthrow is his ally and backer Russia, which has helped prop up Assad’s regime since the start of the civil war. This time around, Moscow’s focus on the conflict in Ukraine has limited the amount of military aid it was willing and able to give to Assad’s forces.
There’s no doubt that Russia will be concerned over the amount of much influence — and good will — it can expect from a new leadership in Syria. Moscow has a vested interest in keeping the new government on side as it operates an air base in Hmeimim, along with a naval base in Tartus that gives it access to the Mediterranean Sea.
Rebel forces have given the Kremlin assurances that they would guarantee the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions in Syria, Reuters reported citing Russian news agencies, but Russia’s long-term military presence in the country is seen as far from certain.
A man sits in front of a poster depicting the since-ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin and reading in Arabic “Syria stands with the Russian Federation”, in Syria’s port city of Tartus on July 24, 2022.
Louai Beshara | Afp | Getty Images
Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, described Assad’s ousting as a “huge humiliation for Putin who has made a lot of the fact that he never abandons his allies.”
“The limits of Russian military power have now been revealed — unable to fight multiple wars, and still bogged down in Ukraine. Putin is struggling to hang on to the prized asset of the Tartus warm water port — and if he keeps it, he might have had to give Turkey concessions elsewhere,” Ash said.
He further noted that Putin “now goes into Ukraine peace talks from a position of weakness,” adding that developments in Syria make “a better Ukrainian peace” more likely.
As for Iran, strategist Ash said Tehran’s misfortunes had just grown, after Israel already severely weakened its proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
“Iran — it just goes from bad to worse as another proxy domino drops, Hezbollah, now Assad. Could Tehran be next? Could we see internal forces arise again?” Ash said in emailed comments, questioning what Tehran can now do “to stop the rot” of its influence.
